A recent report by the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) provides new insights into the factors that determine whether migrants on the Skilled Worker route are likely to remain in the UK long-term. In this article, we summarise the report's key findings and the potential implications for informing the development of future immigration policy.  

What does the report focus on?

The report, which was published on 12 May 2026, examines whether individuals on the Skilled Worker routes (including the predecessor Tier 2 (General) route) between 2014 and 2024 continue to hold valid UK immigration status (i.e. valid limited immigration permission, settlement or citizenship). This is referred to in the report as 'stay rates'.   

The report uses several linked Home Office datasets to track 916,000 migrant journeys and analyse how individual characteristics and occupational factors influence whether migrants who enter the UK on the Skilled Worker routes choose to stay in the UK long-term.  

What are the key findings in the report?

The key findings based on the data analysed for the purposes of the report are summarised below:

• Stay rates have increased in general: 74% of migrants arriving in 2014 remained in the UK 5 years after starting their first Skilled Worker visa compared to 85% of those arriving in 2019.
• Migrants from wealthier countries are less likely to stay: On average, migrants from higher GDP per capita countries demonstrate lower stay rates. This may be because of relatively better economic opportunities when returning to their country of nationality. There is however variation across nationalities and this factor is not considered the sole determinant of stay rate.
• Migrants aged 45 and over are less likely to stay: Those who migrate when they are older are less likely to stay long-term. After 5 years, only 65% of migrants who received their first Skilled Worker visa at age 45 or over still hold valid immigration status. By contrast, of those obtaining their first Skilled Worker aged under 45 approximately 81% remain in the UK 5 years later.
• Women are more likely to stay than men: After 5 years, female Skilled Worker visa holders are around 5% more likely to have retained valid immigration status than their male counterparts.
• Where you apply from matters: Migrants applying inside the UK, including those switching from other visa routes, are more likely to stay long-term than migrants applying from overseas.
• Lower earners are more likely to stay than higher earners: Skilled Workers earning under £40,000 annually demonstrated the highest stay rates, while those earning over £125,000 showed comparatively lower long-term retention.
• Health and social care workers are most likely to stay: Stay rates vary significantly between sectors and occupations. The overall sector retention for health and social care is 88.2% after 5 years, with nurses showing retention rates of approximately 94%. By contrast, the education sector, particularly higher education (including researchers), has much lower retention rates.
• Location matters (slightly): After 5 years in the UK, stay rates are between 80% and 83% for those in all UK nations and regions aside from the South East (79%), Yorkshire and the Humber (78%), Wales (78%) and Scotland (73%).

What are the implications of these findings for immigration policy and workforce planning?

The report is particularly interesting in the context of the UK Government's earned settlement proposals, which you can read more about in our article series here.

The report's analysis focuses on what drives migrants' decisions to stay rather than the likely impacts of changing settlement rules. However, it offers useful context because it shows that motivations vary greatly according to migrants' individual characteristics. As a result, the MAC is willing to speculate that groups with historically lower stay rates under current immigration policy (for example, higher earners and academics) may be more likely to be deterred by a less generous settlement offer or to leave if placed on a longer route to settlement. 

By contrast, the report shows that those in the health and care sector and lower earners demonstrate a far greater propensity to remain in the UK. The MAC notes that this could reduce the fiscal benefit of the Skilled Worker route, but that this needs to be balanced with the wider fiscal and societal impact of, for example, maintaining the care sector workforce. 

Incidentally, this ties in with the MAC's recently-developed fiscal model in which it notes that it is reasonable to design immigration policy so that groups expected to have a net negative lifetime fiscal impact are not admitted unless there is a clear reason to do so. This might be because they generate broader positive spillover effects such as enabling the provision of good quality public services. 

What further analysis does the MAC intend to undertake?

The MAC anticipates several areas of future research and analysis will be possible using the dataset relied on in this report. These are summarised below:

• Settlement and citizenship determinants: Research into what drives migrants to obtain settlement or citizenship or to remain long-term without acquiring either status, which could improve forecasts of settlement trends.
• Occupation-level analysis: Analysis of visa histories and settlement outcomes for migrants in specific occupations, which could provide evidence of how the immigration system addresses labour shortages in particular industries.
• Multiple visa holders: Investigation of individuals who receive more than one Skilled Worker visa (through extensions or employer changes), enabling analysis of how migrants' salaries and occupations evolve over time at both the individual level and cohort-wide.
• Joining datasets for improved analysis: As an example, linking to the Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) data from the Student route could allow analysis of visa outcomes by higher education provider and course, including switching patterns into work routes and longer-term retention.

Need more information?

If you would like more information on the issues discussed in this article, please contact a member of our Immigration Team.