This discussion paper by McKinsey Global Institute considers the impact of AI on economic growth, and explores how AI may impact economic activity, and potentially touch off a competitive race with major implications for firms, labour markets, and economies. It finds that in the aggregate, and netting out competition effects and transition costs, AI could potentially deliver additional economic output of around $13 trillion by 2030, boosting global GDP by about 1.2% a year, with this impact emerging gradually and becoming visible only over time. The report notes that a key challenge is that adoption of AI could widen gaps between countries, companies and workers, with frontrunner companies potentially doubling their returns by 2030. For individual workers, too, demand - and wages - may grow for those with digital and cognitive skills and with expertise in tasks that are hard to automate, but shrink for workers performing repetitive tasks. How companies and countries choose to embrace AI will likely impact outcomes - in all cases, there are trade-offs that need to be understood and managed appropriately in order to capture the potential of AI for the world economy.
